內容簡介
《金融時報》的首席經濟評論員帶你看清全球經濟的新局勢以及未來的趨勢。
2007─2008年的金融危機至今還影響我們。這期間出版了很多書，都想要了解這場金融及經濟危機的成因和過程。這本《Shifts and the Shocks》卻不再詳細鑽研其過程，而是要告訴讀者，這場危機如何讓我們認識現代經濟體和經濟學，立論完整有力，是其他同類書籍所不能及。
本書在全球化、全球發展不均還有金融體系不健全三者複雜的交互關係中找出了金融危機的源頭。在歐元區，這些不穩定的因子又加上了貨幣同盟致命的結構缺陷。書中也指出，危機發生前貨幣及金融政策奉為圭臬的原則其實有諸多錯誤。作者從上述各個角度切入，無情的揭露了掌管整個體制的政治、金融、學術菁英所犯下的大錯。
此外，書中也分析危機發生之後，金融和貨幣體系經理哪些變革。作者 Martin Wolf問道：「這條路可以走向穩定嗎？」可惜不行。他進一步解釋為什麼未來勢必會再發生危機，歐元區的管理一定會導致未來某天的政治問題。
本書的企圖之大、眼界之廣、論述之詳盡，都是目前書市中的其他書籍所不能及。對於全球事務有興趣的你，一定不可錯過。
In The Shifts and the Shocks, Martin Wolf - one of the world's most influential economic commentators and author of Why Globalization Works - presents his controversial and highly original analysis of the economic course of the last seven years
There have been many books that have sought to explain the causes and courses of the financial and economic crisis which began in 2007-8. The Shifts and the Shocks is not another detailed history of the crisis, but the most persuasive and complete account yet published of what the crisis should teach us us about modern economies and economics.
The book identifies the origin of the crisis in the complex interaction between globalization, hugely destabilizing global imbalances and our dangerously fragile financial system. In the eurozone, these sources of instability were multiplied by the tragically defective architecture of the monetary union. It also shows how much of the orthodoxy that shaped monetary and financial policy before the crisis occurred was complacent and wrong. In doing so, it mercilessly reveals the failures of the financial, political and intellectual elites who ran the system.
The book also examines what has been done to reform the financial and monetary systems since the worst of the crisis passed. 'Are we now on a sustainable course?' Wolf asks. 'The answer is no.' He explains with great clarity why 'further crises seem certain' and why the management of the eurozone in particular 'guarantees a huge political crisis at some point in the future.' Wolf provides far more ambitious and comprehensive plans for reform than any currently being implemented.
Written with all the intellectual command and trenchant judgement that have made Martin Wolf one of the world's most influential economic commentators, The Shifts and the Shocks matches impressive analysis with no-holds-barred criticism and persuasive prescription for a more stable future. It is a book no-one with an interest in global affairs will want to neglect.
MARTIN WOLF is Associate Editor and Chief Economics Commentator at the Financial Times, London. He is the recipient of many awards for financial journalism, for which he was also made a CBE in 2000. His previous books include Why Globalization Works and Fixing Global Finance.
"We have been inundated with books about the 'financial' aspects of the crisis. There have also been many books about specific institutions or memoirs by retired policy-makers. We need something different. There are two dimensions of the crisis that have received surprisingly little treatment. One is the link between developments in the macro-economy and the behaviour of the financial sector. The other is the global dimension of the crisis. Both these lie at the heart of Martin Wolf's analysis of the causes of the crisis and of his proposals to reduce the risk of another crisis. For these two reasons this is an important book that will be influential. Most important of all, it is in my view the right analysis and remedy" Mervyn King
"To think straight about the causes and solutions of the financial crisis we must reject orthodox assumptions that more finance and global financial integration are limitlessly beneficial. The Shifts and the Shocks does just that, providing an intellectually sparkling and vital account of why the crisis occurred, and of the radical reforms needed if we are to avoid a future repeat" Adair Turner
"Martin Wolf is unsurpassed in the world of economic journalists. His superb book may be the best of all those spawned by the Great Recession. It is analytical and rigorous without ever succumbing to fatalism or complacency" Lawrence Summers