內容簡介

馬可波羅世界的回歸，探討21世紀的戰爭、戰略和美國利益
權威地緣政治分析家及暢銷書《無政府狀態的到來》作者羅伯特‧卡普蘭探討美國外交政策的成敗是否造就重生機會

13世紀時，馬可‧波羅開始長達數十年的長途跋涉，從威尼斯穿越來到中國。這條絲路(歐洲與亞洲主要貿易路線)力量，成為忽必烈建立強大帝國的根基。21世紀的現在，中國政府也將提出一條與馬可波羅相同的陸海絲路。

羅伯特‧卡普蘭透過美國國安中心發表了一篇論文，列出了13世紀以來不斷變化的各國政治強權藍圖，歐洲因為移民產生文化上的斷裂，歐亞大陸演化為一個單一衝突體系，中國正在修補通往歐洲的陸橋，伊朗和印度正嘗試將中亞的油田與印度洋相接，而美國影響歐亞地區的政權正逐漸下降。

卡普蘭透過本書概述美國應該如何在動盪的世界中塑造新的外交原則：尊重西方民主的限制；美國利益與價值之間的劃分；意識到戰爭將帶給人民嚴重的心理傷害；透過強大的海軍勢力進行權力投射等。

A bracing assessment of U.S. foreign policy and world disorder over the past two decades, anchored by a major new Pentagon-commissioned essay about changing power dynamics among China, Eurasia, and America—from the renowned geopolitical analyst and bestselling author of The Revenge of Geography and The Coming Anarchy.

In the late thirteenth century, Marco Polo began a decades-long trek from Venice to China. The strength of that Silk Road—the trade route between Europe and Asia—was a foundation of Kublai Khan’s sprawling empire. Now, in the early twenty-first century, the Chinese regime has proposed a land-and-maritime Silk Road that duplicates exactly the route Marco Polo traveled.

In the major lead essay, recently released by the Pentagon’s Office of Net Assessment, Robert D. Kaplan lays out a blueprint of the world’s changing power politics that recalls the late thirteenth century. As Europe fractures from changes in culture and migration, Eurasia coheres into a single conflict system. China is constructing a land bridge to Europe. Iran and India are trying to link the oil fields of Central Asia to the Indian Ocean. America’s ability to influence the power balance in Eurasia is declining.

This is Kaplan’s first collection of essays since his classic The Coming Anarchy was published in 2000. Drawing on decades of firsthand experience as a foreign correspondent and military embed for The Atlantic, as well as encounters with preeminent realist thinkers, Kaplan outlines the timeless principles that should shape America’s role in a turbulent world: a respect for the limits of Western-style democracy; a delineation between American interests and American values; an awareness of the psychological toll of warfare; a projection of power via a strong navy; and more.

From Kaplan’s immediate thoughts on President Trump (“On Foreign Policy, Donald Trump Is No Realist,” 2016) to a frank examination of what will happen in the event of war with North Korea (“When North Korea Falls,” 2006), The Return of Marco Polo’s World is a vigorous and honest reckoning with the difficult choices the United States will face in the years ahead.

“These essays constitute a truly pathbreaking, brilliant synthesis and analysis of geographic, political, technological, and economic trends with far-reaching consequences. The Return of Marco Polo’s World is another work by Robert D. Kaplan that will be regarded as a classic.”—General David Petraeus (U.S. Army, Ret.)